Five Forces at work in the Middle East

For over a month, watershed events have been transpiring in a host of middle eastern countries. Tunisia led in their revolt against an oppressive government, which was followed by successes including the resignation of autocratic leader, President Hosni Mubarak, in Egypt. Iran is among several other countries that have also recently erupted in civilian riots. They demand government reformation from the long-time ultra-conservative regime and aim to oust their President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, based on Porter's Five Forces Model, the people of Iran face a considerably different government. While Middle East countries share much in common, the Iran regime has created for themselves a particularly unique set of characteristics that improve their ability to maintain the status-quo.


Bargaining power of suppliers (Low). Generally the sanctions and embargoes imposed by free countries compromise the sustainability of a government like Iran. However, they have managed to keep the supplier power reasonably low by their involvement in OPEC. Furthermore, their close relationships with other similar regimes have allowed them to use an alternate means for acquiring necessary goods for sustainability.

Rivalry within industry (Low). As in all political regimes, the incumbent leader is careful to protect his supremacy with constant surveillance of any possible contender. Ahmadinejad is no different, he maintains tight control of his surrounding political environment and immediately destroys any possible threats.

Threat of substitute products (Low). It's easy for Americans to say that a solution is to simply move to a better country. This is very difficult to accomplish from an economic approach. Emigrants from Iran have generally been highly educated, many holding degrees from American and West European universities. Also, a large proportion are found to have been members of the pre-revolutionary elite that had succeeded in transferring much of their wealth out of Iran during and after the Revolution. Additionally, Iranians stereotypically are very proud of their heritage and find it hard to leave their homelands.

Bargaining power of customers (Moderate). The most difficult challenge that Iran faces is keeping the majority of their citizens just happy enough so as not to pressure an unmanageable uprising. Gathering a critical mass of protestors big enough and united enough to overthrow the authoritarian regime is a tall order. The possibility of an effective uprising is further diminished by the Government's control of media and communication.

Threat of new entrants (Low). At times war and intervention in Iran seem imminent; however, Iran as well as the rest of the World knows that the United States and the United Nations are hardly in the position to be on the front of another war. Ahmadinejad knows just how much he can push without entering a war and it will be a long before he thinks of crossing those political limits.


After considering the Iranian government's Five Forces, I submit that regretfully the people of Iran will be unsuccessful in achieving the change they seek.